Every January we write down what actually happened, so that next January we can see whether we were right.
Volume was down about a fifth
Fewer houses changed hands than in any of the last four years. That is not a price story. It is an inventory story. Owners who bought well in the last decade have no reason to sell, and no cheaper place to put the money.
Prices held
Across the six quarters the median sale was flat on the year, inside the margin of error. The ridge was up slightly, the marina was down slightly, and neither move was big enough to plan around.
The good houses went fast
Median time to an accepted offer was 27 days across everything we handled. For the houses we would call good, meaning two aspects, mature ground and a real view, it was closer to two weeks, and several never reached the open market at all.
The private share grew
A little over half of our transactions last year closed without a public listing, up from about a third. When inventory is thin, sellers who do not strictly need the auction of an open sale increasingly skip it.
What we expect
More of the same. Thin supply, patient prices, and a widening gap between houses that were designed and houses that were merely built. If you are buying, the work is getting introduced early. If you are selling something good, you have more leverage than the headline volume suggests.
